Mid-Year Consumables Market Update: Packaging Ink Demand Is Rising Rapidly

With the year already more than half over, it’s a great time to pause and take stock of what’s going on in the consumables space — aluminum offset plates, paper, inks, and everything else needed to actually produce printed materials.  

While we have certainly come a long way from the shortages and price hikes that defined the COVID years, that doesn’t mean consumables in general aren’t still getting pressure from a number of sources. Depending on the types of consumables you use, you might feel like everything has more or less returned to pre-2020 situations, or you might still be feeling the squeeze. So with that in mind, let's take a look at a few key trends still impacting the space today. 

Paper Still Under Pressure 

While it certainly isn’t nearly as bad as it was a few years ago, there are still considerable pressures on the paper market. Demand is still in the process of shifting, with many mills either closing entirely, or moving to other grades of paper, particularly either packaging grades, or consumer products — think toilet paper or paper towels. 

“Like all businesses, the challenges paper manufacturers face are input costs — energy, raw materials (pulp costs), and finding labor (like print, it is an aging workforce that is challenged to attract younger workers),” reports Jill Crossley, director of operations at industry association Two Sides North America. “An overall decline in demand plus the cost of inflation have led to consolidation, closure, and the transition of mills to manufacture other grades.  

“I recently saw some data pulled from RISI that showed printing & writing paper capacity has decreased anywhere from 65% to 85% since 2000 depending on the paper type (coated and SC papers),” she adds. “The numbers are similar in Europe where there has been a strong contraction of capacity.” 

That said, Crossley notes it’s not all bad news. In fact, she points out that paper demand and pricing did seem to finally stabilize at the beginning of this year, allowing printers to get some much-needed ability to accurately predict their costs again. But while printers now can more or less get most grades of paper they need, when they need it, the pressures aren’t going away. 

“Overall demand for coated papers rebounded and was slightly up in the first half of 2024. However, continual postage rate increases have tempered this, significantly impacting direct mail, publication, and catalog mailings,” she notes. “The conversions by paper manufacturers and cost pressures have caused printers/end users to look at other paper options, often getting creative and downgrading to a lesser quality or lighter paper to help with costs. I would think printers will continue to do this because those cost pressures don’t seem to be going away in the second half of the year.” 

As for what’s next the rest of this year and into next? Likely more of the same — prices will continue to remain fairly stable, and printers should be able to get most commercial grades they need for their applications, although there might be some short-term shortages or shuffling as mill closures continue to happen.  

The grades of paper will vary fairly significantly in terms of how much demand and cost increase is seen, so there is no one trend or prediction that will apply to all commercial printers. Rather, you should continue to work closely with paper mills and merchants to ensure you have what you need, when you need it, for a price that doesn’t cut into margins or lower customer orders. 

Offset Plates Under Siege 

One area that is seeing significant challenges right now is the aluminum lithographic printing plate market, with a battle going on over whether or not the United States will impose tariffs on imported plates. Right now, Kodak is the only manufacturer still producing aluminum offset plates in the U.S. (at a facility in Columbus, Georgia), with the rest importing mostly from either Japan or China.  

Kodak and the U.S. Department of Commerce have been pushing for tariffs that could soar well into the triple digits, if passed. This, in turn, will force manufacturers such as FUJIFILM to raise prices significantly to offset those costs. Unsurprisingly, they have been strong opponents of the proposed tariffs, with a statement from the company noting they will “explain and defend our position to the International Trade Commission.” 

Further muddying those waters, FUJIFILM has also filed a patent infringement suit against Kodak, saying the company’s Sonora processless plates are infringing on FUJIFILM’s patents.  

The basis for the tariffs revolves around claims companies that manufacture aluminum litho plates in Japan and China have an unfair advantage, claiming they are “dumping” plates in the U.S. market for significantly less than they charge in those countries, creating anti-competitive markets. Kodak claims these companies are selling plates for significantly less than the cost of production to capture more market share. 

However, FUJIFILM noted in a statement that, “The preliminary antidumping duties from the U.S. Department of Commerce is predicated in part on the higher market prices of our aluminum printing plates in Japan, which creates the misguided perception of FUJIFILM unfairly lowering U.S. prices by comparison. The antidumping law allows Eastman Kodak to claim that the existence of higher prices in Japan somehow makes the lower prices offered to U.S. customers ‘unfair’. But this is just not true. FUJIFILM’s prices to its U.S. customers are not unfair to anyone.” 

Recently, 12 regional trade association groups threw their own weight into the debate, with a formal joint statement against the proposed tariffs. It reads in part, “We are writing on behalf of the U.S. printing and graphic communications industries to urge the International Trade Commission (ITC) to reject antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on imports of aluminum lithographic printing plates from Japan and China. Additional duties on printing plates will lead to increased costs for printers and the businesses they serve, reduce competition in the printing plate market, and threaten the availability of quality printed materials for businesses and consumers alike … 

“ … Although the entire printing and graphic communications industries and the customers they serve will feel the burden of increased costs — from the largest-scale commercial printers to the smallest mom-and-pop printers — we are particularly concerned that small printers and the thousands of small businesses served by printers in this country will disproportionately shoulder the burden.” 

The final hearing will be held on Sept. 12, which is also when the ITC is expected to issue its final ruling on the matter, so stay tuned. 

Ink Supply and Demand 

In contrast to paper and plates, inks, in general, aren’t seeing as much volatility right now. There have been hiccups in the past year, such as the fight to prevent state legislatures to ban Carbon Black in inks, which would have significant impacts if passed, but for the products themselves, the market has stabilized into a fairly healthy supply and demand.  

A few trends impacting the space include ever-increasing demands for more eco-friendly inks to match with growing sustainability concerns across all types of businesses and industries; a growing demand for more specialty inks, particularly in the digital space — think neons or metallic inks, to name a few; and the continuing trend for printers to demand inks that dry faster and can produce higher-quality pieces, as consumers and brands aren’t interested in compromising. 

Unsurprisingly, packaging ink demand is rising rapidly, as more commercial printers look to enter the space with short-run or prototype work to complement work they are doing with brands, both large and small. That trend will likely continue to drive innovation in that space.  

On the flip side, the costs of the raw materials needed to produce all these inks, and the supply chains necessary to move those materials around, are all seeing costs rise, which in turn is impacting the price of the final product. To date — barring the pandemic years — the costs of ink have remained relatively stable, without any major spikes, but more of a steady increase over time. Expect that to continue for at least the short-term, although a lot of factors could see that change rapidly, so it is worth it to keep a close eye on the space. 

All in all, the consumables market has stabilized in the past few years, but that doesn’t mean the challenges created by the pandemic have simply evaporated overnight. We are still seeing the impacts linger, even as newer challenges such as the imported offset plate tariff controversy come along.  

Commercial printers don’t need to be hoarding paper or supplies anymore for fear of running out and not being able to get more, but they should be paying close attention to what the market is doing, and continue to work closely with their chosen vendors to make sure they are prepared for whatever might come down the line during the remainder of this year, in 2025,  and beyond.